Andy Carroll...target man or targeted man?

     Liverpool host Newcastle United tonight without the controversial but ineffably talented Uruguayan striker Luis Suarez, paving the way for Andy Carroll to make only his 10th start for the Reds in almost a year.

     The 6ft 3in target man, now being dubbed a £35m misfit by many, signed from Newcastle last January at the same time as Suarez and while both players were highly coveted only one has made any on-field impact for their new club. 

     That Andy Carroll was signed for a record fee for a British player at the age of 21 has only served to magnify his recent shortcomings. A strike rate of one goal in very nearly six games is not what Liverpool fans are entitled to expect from a player Kenny Dalglish elevated to the eighth most expensive in history, hence the lukewarm response from both Koppites and the media.

     Comparisons are naturally being drawn with Suarez who arrived in tandem with the big Geordie but for almost £13m less. These comparisons are less than flattering for Carroll and, although he has cost Liverpool almost £7m more per goal than the Uruguayan, they go beyond the financial. Carroll's contribution is a meagre four (yes, four) goals in the famous red shirt, while Suarez has three times as many, netting his first after just sixteen minutes in last season's home fixture against Stoke. 

     It is not unsurprising then that the Kop would have embraced Suarez in a very public way while Carroll feels like something of the black (and white) sheep of his new family. Even with their previous clubs the difference between the two hit men is stark. In five years and 80 appearances for Newcastle, Carroll bagged thirty-one goals. Not bad, maybe. Luis Suarez had 81 goals in 110 games at Ajax; 49 in all competitions in a single season.

     So, are Liverpool likely to be worse-off for having to make the Carroll-Suarez switch up front tonight? Both history and the form book would say 'yes', which is why there has been such significant newspaper analysis today. However, in the longer term Dalglish's judgment on Andy Carroll may yet prove sound.

     Most football-savvy fans and reporters, even those who view Carroll as a flop, would be hard-pressed to deny that a significant chunk of the record transfer fee was paid in exchange for the young striker's potential rather than immediate impact. Why else would a club be willing for fork out such a huge sum for a player who's goal tally was seemingly unspectacular?

     This is where such comparisons break down. Goals, alas, goals in one place don't always translate into goals in another: Darren Bent suffered a lean time at Spurs between cracking stints at Charlton and Sunderland; Diego Forlan flopped at Manchester Utd, but has been prolific virtually everywhere else; and little needs to be said about the fortunes of Fernando Torres. So, with goals a somewhat unreliable predictor of future success, it's clear that Liverpool must have adopted longer-term thinking with the Carroll transfer.

     Furthermore, Suarez had played for three different clubs in two countries, enjoying success with all of them, as well as a starring role for Uruguay at the 2010 World Cup prior to joining Liverpool. His journey to the top has been much more incremental and he is much closer to the finished article than Carroll, who many would describe as rough-around-the-edges. Andy Carroll has only played only 16 games in an injury-blighted year with Liverpool and a significant number of games for just one other club, for which his performances in the first-half of last season thrust him into the spotlight before any £35m cheques were signed.

Will the Kop finally be singing their Carroll at last against Newcastle?

     What might give Liverpool and England fans a glimmer of hope for the future of Andy Carroll as a top European and international footballer is to remember the devastating impact the relatively inexperienced player had in Premier League games against the likes of Aston Villa and Liverpool for the Magpies last season. 

     The man who was tipped to have a bright future by Italy legend Gianluigi Buffon, who faced an 18-year-old Carroll in 2007, has also been praised highly by his former manager Alan Pardew. Pardew has described the effects of losing Carroll last season in unequivocal terms. He has pinpointed the loss of the striker as a key reason for his side's poor performance away to Fulham last season. "There is no doubt it was an after-effect of the sale", claims Pardew. "When Andy left, it was as disappointing a week as I have felt at this club", he added, highlighting just how much he felt he had lost with the departure of Carroll to Liverpool.

     Perhaps the (now controversial) record-breaking transfer of year ago that left Alan Pardew "feeling dejected" may yet lift the spirits of a Kop robbed of their new talisman through suspension and leave Kenny Dalglish feeling vindicated.